WE'RE back in lockdown - more lockdown lite - after MPs overwhelmingly voted for it on Wednesday.
In my article for Nub News a month ago, I hoped Wiltshire and the South West would continue to be spared the worst of the virus.
I’m glad that this continues to be the case, as admissions to hospitals – sadly the harbinger of more deaths - remain low. Indeed, just one per cent of Salisbury hospital’s patients are being treated for Covid-19, whilst in Bath this figure is three per cent.
But the precursor to hospital admissions are, of course, cases recorded and there is a delay between cases and admissions of up to four weeks.
In the South West, although cases may be generally lower than the rest of the country, they are rising.
Wiltshire’s seven-day average case rate has more than doubled since my last column, Bath and North East Somerset’s has more than trebled, and Swindon’s has quadrupled. This means local hospitals like Bath and Salisbury could be in trouble soon.
So, we need to keep these hospital figures low, particularly as beds operate at close to full capacity all the time and especially during the winter. This time around too, hospitals, rightly, are not cancelling routine cases which will pile on the pressure.
I am acutely aware of the dangers associated with lockdown – liberty and livelihoods lost, damage to the economy plus indirect deaths and damage to mental health. I didn’t go into politics to trash freedom and liberty and I know the Prime Minister didn’t either. I’ve seen how he’s been pushing back on those advising him to go further, faster.
I contributed early-on in Wednesday’s debate to register these points. I also flagged up my concerns with the Government’s interpretation of the data which are similar to those expressed more forcefully still by Theresa May.
I questioned the need to ban outdoor non-contact sports and collective worship and, in anticipation of a vaccine, sought reassurance that ministers have in place the logistics and cold chain needed to get the stuff out to patients, name-checking Wiltshire-based company Polar Thermal Packaging.
I’ve deliberated over these new matters intensely in the time between the PM’s announcement last Saturday and Wednesday’s vote – perhaps more than on any other vote in my political career other than the vote on the 2003 Iraq war, when I opposed the position taken by my party.
But in the end, the clinchers for me are keeping schools open, legally time-bounding lockdown until December 2 (unless MPs vote to extend them), and the margin of uncertainty around the data.
I voted for the extension, but with a very heavy heart.